Expected Long-Term Returns for Traditional Asset Classes

Expected return for a traditional stock/bond portfolio (60% S&P 500, 30% Treasury Bonds, 10% T-bills) over the forthcoming 12-year period:

After dividends, approximately 0% return.

hussman-funds-972016Chart Source: Twitter post from John Hussman on 9/7/2016


Expected return and volatility for various asset classes over the forthcoming 7-year period:

*See page 6* from the second quarter 2016 quarterly letter from Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo entitled The Duration Connection