Fed Funds Rate vs. 30-, 10-, & 5-Year Treasury Bond Yields


Interesting — and maybe slightly unexpected, for some — to note that yesterday the Fed funds rate was raised and today long-term Treasury bond yields are falling(i.e. long-term Treasury bond prices are rising); yet this is not out of context with history.

Note that short-term Treasury rates rose before (and into) the previous “Fed-funds-rate hike cycle”(2004-2005), moving up to meet long-term Treasury rates.  

But when the “hike-cycle” began in 2004, long-term Treasury rates fell, as inflation expectations fell — an outcome consistent with the Fisher equation. (See Alternative Investments: Part 4 — Duration-Oriented Unconstrained Bond Strategy for further explanation of the Fisher equation.)