GDP “Surprises” To the Downside Should Not Be That Surprising


The issue of GDP “surprises” has been directly addressed, but is worth revisiting today after the “surprise” revision of GDP growth to the downside.

As discussed here in December 2016, in the current economic environment, GDP surprises are more likely to be to the downside rather than to the upside… December 28, 2016; the constraints leading to these potential growth “surprises” have been discussed in Economic Dilemmas: Deep Structural Issues Don’t Quickly Disappear, and in twitter comments below…

…and in the Economic Environment section under the Education tab.